The Competition Between PDIP and KIM PLUS in the 2024 Regional Elections, Who Will Prevail?

Kapanlagi.com - The simultaneous regional elections scheduled for Wednesday, November 27, 2024, are set to be an exciting battleground between two major political forces: PDIP and the Indonesian Forward Coalition (KIM) Plus. Four strategic regions—DKI Jakarta, Central Java, East Java, and North Sumatra—will be the main arenas for the candidates from both coalitions.

In the weeks leading up to the voting day, both camps are racing to gain voter support with increasingly intensive strategies. Although KIM Plus shows an advantage in some areas, the competition with PDIP remains tight, especially in DKI Jakarta and Central Java. Let’s analyze the electoral trends in these four key regions and see how the political dynamics will unfold as we approach the big day!

1. DKI Jakarta: Tight Competition Between RIDO and Pram-Doel

The political competition in DKI Jakarta is heating up, with the Ridwan Kamil-Suswono (RIDO) pair backed by KIM Plus fiercely facing off against Pramono Anung-Rano Karno (Pram-Doel) from PDIP. Survey results show a significant decline in RIDO's electability, from 51.3% in September to just 34.8% in November, while Pram-Doel surged from 31.1% to 40.3%.

The Indopolling Network survey even recorded Pram-Doel leading with 47.3% of the votes, while RIDO only garnered 39.4%. SMRC also showed a similar trend with Pram-Doel at 46% and RIDO at 39.1%. Pram-Doel's success is closely tied to Rano Karno's popularity as a Betawi cultural icon who can touch the public's emotions, coupled with the solid political machinery of PDIP that is much more robust compared to KIM Plus, which is still struggling to mobilize the masses in Jakarta.

2. Central Java: Luthfi-Yasin Slightly Ahead of Andika-Hendi

In the midst of the heated political competition in Central Java, the pair Ahmad Luthfi-Taj Yasin (KIM Plus) and Andika Perkasa-Hendrar Prihadi (PDIP) are engaged in a tight duel full of intrigue. Based on survey results from various institutions, Luthfi-Yasin briefly led with 47.19% according to Indikator Politik, while Andika-Hendi garnered 43.46%. However, SMRC shows Andika-Hendi slightly luckier with 50.4%, outperforming Luthfi-Yasin who obtained 47%. Even, Litbang Kompas recorded Andika-Hendi leading narrowly with 28.8% compared to Luthfi-Yasin who only had 28.1%.

With a very narrow margin of electability and many voters still confused in deciding their choice, the political machinery of KIM Plus, supported by the religious base of Taj Yasin, appears strong, but the appeal of Andika-Hendi as the dominant face of PDIP in Central Java cannot be underestimated.

3. East Java: The Dominance of Khofifah-Emil

The pair of Khofifah Indar Parawansa and Emil Dardak (KIM Plus) shines brightly on the political stage of East Java, leaving the pair of Tri Rismaharini and Zahrul Azhar Asumta (PDIP) far behind. Various surveys show their dominance: LSI recorded Khofifah-Emil at 67%, Poltracking noted 67.5%, while Litbang Kompas showed a figure of 52.5%.

With the advantage of being the incumbent governor, Khofifah brings substantial experience and a strong political network, while the presence of Emil Dardak as a young figure adds to the appeal of this pair, making them difficult to rival.

4. North Sumatra: The Strength of Bobby Nasution-Surya

In North Sumatra, the pair of Bobby Nasution and Surya from KIM Plus has surged far ahead of their rivals, Edy Rahmayadi and Hasan Basri Sagala from PDIP. According to the latest survey from Indikator Politik, Bobby-Surya garnered a fantastic 62% of the votes, while Edy-Hasan could only collect 29.1%. Litbang Kompas also showed similar results, with Bobby-Surya securing 44.9% compared to Edy-Hasan, who lagged at 28%. Analysis indicates that as the son-in-law of President Joko Widodo, Bobby Nasution has a very strong political network and public support, while Edy's position as the incumbent governor seems insufficient to match Bobby's charm and popularity.

5. Electability Trends and Potential Winners

In the midst of intensifying political competition, KIM Plus demonstrates its striking strength in East Java and North Sumatra, while in DKI Jakarta and Central Java, the battle against PDIP is very fierce with many voters still undecided. The key to achieving victory lies in strengthening the party machinery and adopting a closer approach to local communities, especially the Betawi people in DKI Jakarta; consolidating votes from undecided voters in Central Java; maintaining and preserving support from the incumbent's voter base in East Java; and maximizing support from local figures and effective campaign strategies in North Sumatra.

6. What is the focus of the competition in DKI Jakarta?

The competition is heating up with sharp attention on the popularity of charismatic figures like Ridwan Kamil and Rano Karno, who have become public attention magnets. On the other hand, the strength and strategy of the supporting party machinery also play a crucial role in determining the direction of support, creating an interesting dynamic in this colorful political arena.

7. Who excels in East Java?

The Khofifah-Emil pair from KIM Plus has recorded remarkable achievements with soaring electability, reaching over 65% in various recent surveys. This success shows strong support from the community, indicating that they are increasingly ready to lead with a clear vision and mission.

8. Does PDIP still have a chance in Central Java?

The Andika and Hendi pair is currently stealing attention, as they have a very enticing opportunity! The gap in their electability with the Luthfi and Yasin duo is so thin, making the competition even hotter and interesting to watch.

9. Why does Bobby Nasution excel in North Sumatra?

The victory of the Bobby and Surya pair cannot be separated from their closeness to President Jokowi and their deep-rooted popularity in the local community. This combination becomes a powerful weapon that drives them to achieve the most votes, creating an unstoppable wave of support among voters.

(kpl/ank)